Energy Systems Modelling at the Interface of Science, Education, and Decision-Making
An Open-Source Toolkit for Europe
Time: Mon 2024-09-23 09.00
Location: Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8, Stockholm
Video link: https://kth-se.zoom.us/j/64037744979
Language: English
Subject area: Energy Technology
Doctoral student: Hauke T. J. Henke , Energisystem
Opponent: Associate Professor Madeleine McPherson, University of Victoria
Supervisor: Professor Viktoria Martin, Energisystem; Dr Francesco Gardumi, Energisystem; Professor Mark Howells, Loughborough University
Abstract
In early 2024 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) informed that 2023 has been the so far warmest year on record, with global temperatures being 1.2 degrees Celsius above the baseline. To limit further increases in global temperatures a strong reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is required. 70 percent of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are caused by the use of energy. This implies that to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions a radical change in how humankind uses energy is required. Research shows that the necessary technologies for decarbonizing the energy system are available. It hence is on societies to carry out the relevant transitions. These transitions are complex to implement and require sophisticated planning to maximise the speed of emission reductions and limit social, economic, and environmental implications. Energy models are broadly used tools for energy systems planning in the scientific literature and in the policy making processes. However, energy models are complex tools that require training and expertise to be used in a meaningful way. The capability to communicate between energy modelling community and policy makers and society in general is therefore important for planning the energy transition. But at the same time the increasing interrelatedness of energy sectors and the increasing variability on the supply side with the expanding use of renewable energies lead to increasing complexity in the energy sector. Energy models aim to reflect these complexities and hence the complexity of models increases as well. This leads to an increasing challenge in communicating the results of energy models.
This dissertation provides methodological advances and energy modelling infrastructure to bridge the gap between energy modelling community and policy makers and stakeholders. The thesis investigates on an example model how energy system models can be set-up to facilitate the usage by inexperienced modellers and collaboratively. This model is then compared with a wide range of established models in the field to assess its performance. In a next step the implications of different foresight horizons in long-term planning models and the capability to model disruptive events are explored. This allows capturing potential challenges in policy design for the achievement of long-term goals. And lastly the thesis investigates the possibility to let non-modellers explore the dynamics of energy models via a game linked to an energy model.
In summary, the thesis identifies different means and options to bridge the energy modelling policymaking gap and facilitate a better understanding of energy models and their dynamics. This might facilitate the discussion for evidence based policy making using energy modelling.