Understanding, quantifying and modelling interactions between Energy and Sustainable Development

Abstract

Sustainable development is essential to ensure human well-being while preserving the life-support systems of the planet. However, the safe operating space of Earth is currently exceeded, preventing resources to regenerate and waste from being assimilated in time. Thus, sustainable development requires systemic transformations to align with the planet's carrying capacity, balancing economic, social, and environmental sustainability.

The United Nations adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015 to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure peace and prosperity by 2030. The 17 interconnected SDGs aim to balance social, economic, and environmental sustainability, with specific targets and indicators for progress. SDG7, which focusses on access to clean and affordable energy, is closely linked with other SDGs, reinforcing many 2030 Agenda targets but also presenting potential trade-offs. Addressing these challenges requires integrating qualitative and quantitative methods, and promoting participatory approaches for collective ownership and consensus-building.

This thesis explores the use and development of geospatial approaches to quantify and model synergies and trade-offs between energy and other sustainability dimensions such as water (SDG6), health (SDG3), food (SDG2), gender equality (SDG5), and climate (SDG13), asking the question of how can Geographic Information Systems (GIS) be used effectively to model the interactions between energy and selected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)? two main topics are identified to touch upon many of those interactions and recurrent in literature, as well as having potential to use geospatial approaches: spatial explicit modelling of water, energy, food (WEF) systems, and spatial explicit clean cooking energy access modelling. 

The strong interconnection between water, energy and food systems, calls for holistic planning to assess the impact that an action taken towards the sustainability of a resource (e.g. ease of water scarcity) may have on its interconnected systems (e.g. energy and food systems). Given the challenges of achieving these goals for water-stressed countries, the first research sub-question of this thesis aims at facilitating robust decision-making by quantifying how strategies to alleviate water scarcity in water-scarce regions impact energy and the overall dynamics of WEF Nexus systems. 

Papers I and II developed WEF Nexus models for Jordan and Morocco’s Souss-Massa river basin, focussing on key challenges such as water scarcity, agricultural productivity, energy use and climate change. The models used WEAP for water planning, MABIA for crop production, and a GIS-based model for energy analysis. The findings showed that desalination is necessary but must be combined with low-carbon energy. Improving agricultural water productivity benefits the WEF system overall, but has limited impact on municipal water scarcity. Reducing non-revenue water helps urban supply and energy use but can reduce water recharge in specific aquifers. Energy efficiency supports desalination and reduces emissions. Combined interventions yield the best results, and the switch to solar pumping in Souss-Massa was found to be viable both economically and environmentally. Finally, stakeholder involvement and shared decision metrics are crucial for addressing complex nexus issues. Furthermore, Paper III explores in detail how wastewater reuse in agriculture can affect the WEF system of the North Western Sahara Aquifer System. The results showed that the reuse of treated wastewater can ease groundwater stress, reduce energy use, and support sustainable development. Key recommendations include better water pricing, efficient irrigation, and decentralised wastewater treatment.

The second research topic focusses on the issue of achieving universal access to clean cooking energy. Around 2.1 billion people still rely on polluting fuels, leading to serious health risks, time burdens (especially for women and children), deforestation, and climate change. To capture these interactions, a spatial cost-benefit analysis was developed, comparing current cooking methods with cleaner alternatives, and assessing health, environmental, and economic impacts to identify the most beneficial clean cooking options.

In paper IV, the first open-source spatial cost-benefit analysis tool for clean cooking transitions, OnStove, was developed and applied to Sub-Saharan Africa. The results revealed a major market failure in the region, as traditional biomass use for cooking is predominant despite offering the lowest social benefits. Switching to cleaner stove mixes would yield major gains, but requires targeted policy support. Moreover, in Paper V, the OnStove approach is expanded by integrating stakeholder preferences to guide clean cooking policies in Nepal. This helped identify priority areas for action and supported more effective resource allocation in the government's subsidy plan for clean cooking technologies.

The main research question is answered by taking results from each article. GIS was a powerful tool that worked as an integrator of models and helped to fill data gaps. In WEF Nexus modelling, capturing spatial variability of resources and different topographic characteristics was essential to understand impacts on energy requirements and identify context-specific feedback loops. Spatial mapping also allowed matching supply and demand points, optimising the use of local resources. GIS methods also provided a more detailed understanding of the costs and benefits of achieving cleaner cooking transitions than was previously possible. The spatially explicit modelling approach can highlight geographical and socio-economic variations, enabling targeted policy interventions and reducing potential affordability constraints. Finally, the development of open-source methods allows scalability and replicability of the analysis in other countries, supporting open science and the achievement of the 2030 Agenda.

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